Using the yield spread to forecast recessions and recoveries
The yield spread indicates the likelihood of a recession or recovery one year forward.
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Tag: yield spread
San Diego housing indicators
View these charts for current activity and forecasts for San Diego’s housing market.
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Riverside housing indicators
View these Riverside regional charts for details on current activity and forecasts for its local housing market.
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Los Angeles housing indicators
View these Los Angeles regional charts for details on current activity and forecasts for its housing market.
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Stay ahead of the next recession
Real estate agents: follow these tips to make sure your career survives the next recession.
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How to time the market
When is the best time to buy, sell or hold real estate? These charts will help you anticipate the market to maximize profit.
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Low interest rates are here to stay, spurring refinancing; Monthly Statistical Update (November 2020)
Interest rates hit historic lows for mortgages; Plummeting interest rates send refinances soaring; The yield spread forecasts the long recovery ahead
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Recession anticipation send rates down, refinances up; Monthly Statistical Update (April 2020)
Negative yield spread forecasts 2020 recession; FRM rates hit record lows; Refinances to continue their rise
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The votes are in: Is California in the midst of an economic downturn?
Readers weigh in on whether California is headed for another recession.
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Interest rates favor buyers for now, signal recession to come; Monthly Statistical Update (August 2019)
FRM interest rates now cheaper than ARMs; Buyer Purchasing Power rises in 2019; Negative yield spread forecasts recession
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Study: Construction’s predictive power of recessions
Wondering when the next recession will arrive? Recessions don’t come out of the blue. There are a...
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The votes are in: Declining financial optimism reflects the coming recession
How do our readers feel about their financial situation in 2019, and why?
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Timing the market in 2019; Monthly Statistical Update (December 2018)
Home prices hit their peak in Q3; Falling yield spread signals next recession; Today’s sell phase near its end
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Economic indicators signal a sell phase for real estate
This is not a drill: Now is the time to sell.
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The yield spread’s directive for home prices
The yield spread has dipped below 1% in 2018, here’s what it means for home prices.
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How the next recession will impact California’s housing market
Is another recession imminent?
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Economic uncertainty hinders the housing market; Monthly Statistical Update (August 2016)
10-year Treasury Note near historic lows; Soft yield spread pulses economic uncertainty; Low savings need to rise
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Today’s interest rates show low confidence in the economy; Monthly Statistical Update (March 2016)
Wall Street sees worsening mortgages; Inflation stalls; Yield spread suggests low chance of recession
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Signals encourage investors to hold for future prosperity, monthly statistical update (December 2015)
Yield spread and homes sales volume send a hold signal; Price-rise deceleration suggests end to hold phase approaching; Mortgage rates likely to rise by mid-2016
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Interest rate changes point to future decreases in real estate activity, Monthly Statistical Update (May 2015)
Mortgage rates approach a floor; Yield spread signals a cooldown; REIT values reach new highs
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