The recession is imminent — for real estate, more of 2022; Monthly Statistical Update (January 2023)
Real estate’s preview of what’s to come; Inventories rise as buyer demand dives; Jobs lost in the 2020 recession are fully recovered
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Category: Monthly Statistical Update
Plunging home values and few savings leave recent homebuyers unprepared to combat negative equity; Monthly Statistical Update (December 2022)
Heading into the 2023 recession with low savings rates; Jobs falter in step with the slowing economy; Leaping FRM rates slash purchasing power, home prices
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2023 recession demands discipline from investors; Monthly Statistical Update (November 2022)
Today’s weak yield spread reflects 2023’s poor economic outlook; Investors abandon risk in favor of safe havens; Property prices have a long way to fall in 2023-2025
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Climbing mortgage rates pushed sales volume down — and now property prices; Monthly Statistical Update (October 2022)
Home sales volume deflates on buyer exhaustion; The cyclical home price decay has begun; Mortgage rates resume their upward march
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Homebuyers now lean on ARMs to cover lost purchasing power — and that crutch is about to vanish; Monthly Statistical Update (September 2022)
The Monthly Statistical Update (MSU) keeps agents and brokers current on the market trends...
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Sharply climbing long-term yields put real estate buyers and sellers on notice; Monthly Statistical Update (August 2022)
Punishing mortgage rates drop Buyer Purchasing Power to the basement; Stock market price restructuring — investors prepare for decay to ripple into property prices; California home sales volume has taken an unseasonably downward trend
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California home prices, bankruptcies, and jobs are at a turning point; Monthly Statistical Update (July 2022)
Jobs are nearing a pandemic recovery; Business bankruptcies to explode without stimulus; The mean price trendline’s tether on home prices
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Higher mortgage rates drain purchasing power and sink sales volume; Monthly Statistical Update (June 2022)
Rates show buyers and sellers no mercy; Mortgage rates devastate purchase-assist financing; The seller’s home sales volume cascade has begun
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Fast rising mortgage rates chill real estate for all participants; Monthly Statistical Update (May 2022)
Mortgage interest rates leap, toppling buyers until prices drop; Lured by temporary price reports, new agents pour in during 2021; ARM use to rise with FRM rate jump
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Jobs still lagging, savings rates fall; Monthly Statistical Update (April 2022)
Jobs are still climbing out of the recessionary pit; Personal savings — back to normal and falling; Yield spread forecasts no double dip recession — for now
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2021 sales volume and construction gains offset in 2022 by higher mortgage rates; Monthly Statistical Update (March 2022)
Home sales got a (temporary) boost in 2021; Residential construction is not (yet) meeting demand; Mortgage insurance woes for leveraged buyers
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Mortgage rates jump, depressing real estate pricing in 2022; Monthly Statistical Update (February 2022)
Fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rates leaped; While mortgage rates jump, Treasuries only rise; High home prices just lost support
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Mortgage rates enter 2022 in a risky crossover; Monthly Statistical Update (January 2022)
Fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rates look flat to up; Bond market investors subdued as the Fed fights inflation; Homebuyers eye low rates on adjustable rate mortgages (ARM)
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Construction awaits a full jobs recovery; Monthly Statistical Update (December 2021)
The faltering recovery progress for jobs; Low labor force participation continues; Construction recovery hampered
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Buyer purchasing power goes negative, reigning in home sales volume and prices; Monthly Statistical Update (November 2021)
Home sales volume jumped — past to present; Pandemic-primed home prices now ripe to pop; Buyer purchasing power turns against home sales
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Asset prices are untethered from incomes; Monthly Statistical Update (October 2021)
1.3 million more jobs needed in California; Stocks soar to new heights; Stocks or real estate in 2022?
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Interest rates set to rise; Monthly Statistical Update (September 2021)
30-year FRM rates have a story to tell; ARMs poised to shift lender risks to homebuyers; The 10-year Treasuries and FRM rate spread suggests rates will rise
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More jobs and pay needed to support today’s home prices; Monthly Statistical Update (August 2021)
California home prices soar; Jobs begin their long recovery; Homebuyer purchasing power to level, removing support for increasing prices
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Buyer FOMO and construction shortage drive listing drought; Monthly Statistical Update (July 2021)
Inventory rises from the bottom; More construction is the best cure for inventory shortage; Buyer FOMO inflates sales volume
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Don’t be misled by these bright spots in the housing recovery; Monthly Statistical Update (June 2021)
The yield spread forecasts no double-dip recession; Stimulus payments distort personal savings rates; Rising home sales volume: a mirage?
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