The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate fell slightly to 6.60% in the week ending March 17, 2023. The average 15-year FRM rate also edged lower, now at 5.90%.
Expect to see FRM rates slip in the short term as the Fed knocks down excess inflation before FRM rates resume their long-term upward trend which, in 2013, introduced a half-cycle of some 30 years of rising FRM rates.
The 2020-2021 period of the Pandemic Economy saw FRM rates artificially reduced to their lowest rates ever. FRMs will not see those lows in the 2023 recession.
When the pandemic set in, the average 30-year FRM rate had risen to almost 4.0% which slowed price increases by reducing the amounts buyers were able to borrow. Today’s post-pandemic rise in the FRM to 6.60% inflicts a further reduction in buyer purchasing power — which controls property pricing. This forces buyers dependent on mortgage funds to consider a home in a lower price tier (unlikely), or simply wait out the drop in property prices.
Fundamentally, the setting of FRM rates is tied to the treasury bond market, as are capitalization (cap) rates. The 30-year FRM rate moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury Note rate. Historically, the risk premium spread between the 10-yr T-Note rate and the 30-yr FRM rate is 1.5%. The spread is far greater for cap rates.
However, on March 17, 2023, the 10-yr T-Note rate is 3.41%. Thus, the spread between the 10-year T-Note and 30-year FRM rate is a dramatic 3.19%, over twice the risk premium than the historical rate spread of 1.5%. Today’s generous spread indicates lenders continue to pad their risk premiums in anticipation of future rate increases — and foreclosures due to defaults.
The average monthly rate on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) continues to climb in 2023, presently averaging 6.35%. Currently, the interest rate on the ARM rate is higher than the 15-year FRM rate and just slightly below the 30-year FRM rate. Thus, a riskier ARM is even less appealing to buyers seeking to increase their borrowing capacity beyond the amount allowed by an FRM.
ARM interest rates have exceeded FRM rates as the Fed drives up ARM rates and the bond market has allowed FRM rates to drift lower. This inversion in rates has completely eliminated the appeal of ARMs and the price support ARMs provided before the inversion.
Homebuyers who used ARM funding to extend their purchasing power in 2022 will be confronted with increased monthly payments when the initial teaser rate period ends. The payment increase is due to interest rate adjustments occurring in an environment of upward trending interest rates. Thus, any increase in ARM use adds a degree of instability to real estate markets when ARMs reset, five years forward for home financing.
Updated March 17, 2023. Original copy released March 2012.
Click the link to go directly to a chart, or browse the charts by scrolling below.
1. 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate, weekly — Chart update 03/17/23
2. 30-year FRM rate, monthly — Chart update 03/03/23
3. 15-year FRM rate — Chart update 03/17/23
4. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate, monthly — Chart update 03/03/23
5. 10-year Treasury note rate — Chart update 03/17/23
6. Combined FRM and 10-year Treasury note rates — Chart update 03/03/23
7. 91-day Treasury bill rate — Chart update 03/17/23
8. 3-month Treasury bill — Chart update 03/10/23
9. 6-month Treasury bill — Chart update 03/10/23
10. Treasury Securities average yield — Chart update 02/10/23
11. 12-month Treasury average — Chart update 03/10/23
12. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) — Chart update 02/10/23
13. Applicable federal rates — Chart update 03/17/23
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| Chart update 03/17/23 | ||
Current | Month ago 02/17/23 6.32% | Year ago 03/18/22 4.16% |
Video updated: December 2022 The average 30-year FRM rate in California is provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.
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| Chart update 03/03/23 | ||
Feb 2023 Average 6.40% | Jan 2023 Average 6.27% | Feb 2022 Average 3.76% |
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| Chart update 03/17/23 | ||
Current 03/17/23 5.90% | Month ago 02/17/23 5.51% | Year ago 03/18/22 3.39% |
The average 15-year FRM rate in California is provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.
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| Chart update 03/03/23 | ||
Feb 2023 6.64% | Jan 2023 6.17% | Feb 2022 3.87% |
The 5/1 average adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate shows the average rate for the first five years after origination. After the initial five-year period, the ARM rate is adjusted annually based on an index figure, such as a certain Treasury Bill rate (which reflects Federal Reserve rate movements) or the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Beginning January 2016, the average ARM rate in California is provided by Bankrate.com. Prior to January 2016, the average ARM rate is provided by Freddie Mac’s survey of the Western Region of the U.S. | ||
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| Chart update 03/17/23 | ||
Current 03/17/23 3.41% | Month ago 02/17/23 3.85% | Year ago 03/18/22 1.95% |
This rate is a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. The 10-year rate historically runs closer to 4% during a stable money market. The rate is influenced by worldwide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation. | ||
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| Chart update 03/03/23 | ||
Avg 15-Year Feb 2023 5.60% | Avg 30-Year Feb 2023 6.40% | Avg 10-Year T-Note Feb 2023 3.75% |
Video update: September 2022 The average 15- and 30-year conventional commitment rates are the rates at which a lender commits to lend mortgage money in the United States-West/California for the duration of the life of each respective mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac. The green line reflects the 10-Year Treasury Note Average, a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. It is comprised of the level of worldwide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation.
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| Chart update 03/17/23 | ||
Current 03/16/23 4.89% | Month Ago 02/16/23 4.80% | Year Ago 02/18/22 0.46% |
This rate determines the minimum interest rate the seller must use in a delayed §1031 transaction and report when not receiving interest on §1031 monies held by a facilitator/accommodator. This rate also sets the amount of the ordinary income the facilitator/accommodator must report. | ||
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| Chart update 03/10/23 | ||
Feb 2023 4.65% | Jan 2023 4.54% | Feb 2022 0.33% |
The 3-Month Treasury Bill is the rate managed by the Federal Reserve through the Fed Funds Rate as the base price of borrowing money in the short-term. It is used in determining the yield spread, which predicts the likelihood of a recession one year forward. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay.
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| Chart update 03/10/23 | ||
Feb 2023 4.81% | Jan 2023 4.67% | Feb 2022 0.64% |
The six-month T-Bill rate is one of several indices used by lenders to periodically adjust the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate. The adjusted rate equals the indexed rate (at the time of adjustment or an average of several prior rates) plus the lender’s profit margin. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay. | ||
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| Chart update 02/10/23 | ||
Jan 2023 4.69% | Dec 2022 4.68% | Jan 2022 0.55% |
This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. The ARM interest rate equals T-Bill yield, plus the lender’s profit margin. The index is an average of T-Bill yields with maturities adjusted to one year. | ||
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| Chart update 03/10/23 | ||
Feb 2023 3.47% | Jan 2023 3.14% | Feb 2022 0.22% |
This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. This figure is an average of the one-year T-Bill rates for the past 12 months. The ARM interest rate equals the 12-Month Treasury Average yield plus the lender’s profit margin. There is a one-two month lag in data reporting for the 12-Month Treasury Average. | ||
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| Chart update 02/10/23 | ||
02/09/23 4.55% | 01/13/22 4.30% | 02/11/22 0.05% |
This index is one of several indices used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. It replaced the LIBOR in 2021, which was found to be manipulated in the years leading up to the 2008 recession and financial crisis. The ARM interest rate equals the SOFR rate plus the lender’s profit margin. The rate is based on overnight borrowing in the U.S. Treasury repo market. The SOFR is produced in a transparent manner and is based on observable transactions, rather than models, and, unlike the LIBOR, is not dependent on bank estimates. | ||
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| Chart update 03/17/23 | ||
Short (3 years or less) Apr 2023 3.61% | Medium (3 to 9 years) Apr 2023 3.10% | Long (9+ years) Apr 2023 3.00% |
These rates determine minimum interest yield reportable on carryback financing. The AFR category is determined by the carryback due date. Rates are for monthly payments, reported for the coming month.
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I am learning more and more about all the good information in this chapter from first tuesday thank you.
Lots of charts and graphs with little meaning beyond that rates are and have been historically low . They provide Zero proof that a recession is imminent. Even the time frame is incorrect for predictive analysis. News Flash: CA is not the canary in the coal mine for the US Economy. Your problems there are unique to CA and how it has been mismanaged for decades.
Interest rates will remain relatively low for MANY years to come. The United States has such a large amount of debt that a significant increase in interest rates would leave the US government unable to make the payments on our debt. Defaulting on the deficit is not an option. Therefore rates will remain low.
Jeff Gundlach (the new bond king) says otherwise. IMO we will see 6% rates on 30yr mortgages in the next few years. The national economy is spiking now since money is still cheap to borrow but rates ARE going up so it makes sense to do some things now with cheaper money. Overbuilding due to speculation is a constant theme in our economy and recessions do happen. IMO mid 2019 will be the start of our next recession and the question is how shallow or severe it will be. To soon to tell due to to many factors, trade war, election results, foreign entities buying USA debt (or not).
Thank you. I love this article. Complex issues presented with clarity..
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KISS – Keep it Simple & Stupid. Before, I sell almost everything: pots & pans, Insurance: property & Casualty; life & disability. All kinds of licenses; broker & agent licenses, even dog’s & cat’s license, I let them expired. Are we trying to be expert on extraneous matters of limited application; or to concentrate on practical & substantive issues of social engineering, better understanding, & dedicated service to clients? Let computer-brain-knowledge be ready for, far & between instant use, when needed. But, emphasis should be on KISS. After all, we are only salesmen; although, treated as professionals.
Very useful and concise information. It really tells the story very well.
I’ll have to admit the information overload is a factor in understanding, however it is good to know that First Tuesday continues to track these indices. Each chart references a brief explanation of its meaning. With continued support like this, outside of the Lending Industry interpretations, I’m starting to catch-on. First Tuesday,
you rock!