The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate decreased slightly to 6.71% in the week ending June 9, 2023. The average 15-year FRM rate also fell back to 6.07%.  

Expect to see FRM rates slip in the short term as the Fed knocks down excess inflation before FRM rates resume their long-term upward trend which, in 2013, introduced a half-cycle of some 30 years of rising FRM rates. 

The 2020-2021 period of the Pandemic Economy saw FRM rates artificially reduced to their lowest rates ever. FRMs will not see those lows in the 2023 recession. 

When the pandemic set in, the average 30-year FRM rate had risen to almost 4.0% which slowed price increases by reducing the amounts buyers were able to borrow. Today’s post-pandemic rise in the FRM to 6.71% inflicts a further reduction in buyer purchasing power — which controls property pricing. This forces buyers dependent on mortgage funds to consider a home in a lower price tier (unlikely), or simply wait out the drop in seller asking prices.

Video updated April 2023

Fundamentally, the setting of FRM rates is tied to the treasury bond market, as are capitalization (cap) rates. The 30-year FRM rate moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury Note rate. Historically, the risk premium spread between the 10-yr T-Note rate and the 30-yr FRM rate is 1.5%. The spread is far greater for cap rates. 

However, on June 9, 2023, the 10-yr T-Note rate is 3.75%. Thus, the spread between the 10-year T-Note and 30-year FRM rate is a high 2.96%, essentially double the risk premium than the historical rate spread of 1.5%. Today’s generous spread indicates lenders continue to pad their risk premiums in anticipation of future rate increases — and foreclosures due to defaults.

Video updated April 2023

The average monthly rate on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) continues to edge higher in June 2023, presently averaging 6.90%. Further, the interest rate on the ARM rate is higher than both the 15- and 30-year FRM rate. Thus, a riskier ARM is even less appealing to buyers seeking to increase their borrowing capacity beyond the amount allowed by an FRM.

ARM interest rates have exceeded FRM rates since November 2022 as the Fed drives up ARM rates and the bond market has allowed FRM rates to drift lower. This inversion in rates has completely eliminated the appeal of ARMs and the price support ARMs provided before the inversion. 

Homebuyers who used ARM funding to extend their purchasing power in 2022 will be confronted with increased monthly payments when the initial teaser rate period ends. The payment increase is due to interest rate adjustments occurring in an environment of long-term upward trending interest rates. Thus, any increase in ARM use adds a degree of instability to real estate markets when ARMs reset, five years forward for home financing.

Updated June 9, 2023. Original copy released March 2012.

Click the link to go directly to a chart, or browse the charts by scrolling below.

1. 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rate, weekly — Chart update 06/09/23
2. 30-year FRM rate, monthly — Chart update 06/02/23
3. 15-year FRM rate — Chart update 06/09/23
4. 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate, monthly — Chart update 06/02/23
5. 10-year Treasury note rate — Chart update 06/09/23
6. Combined FRM and 10-year Treasury note rates — Chart update 06/02/23
7. 91-day Treasury bill rate — Chart update 05/12/23
8. 3-month Treasury bill — Chart update 06/09/23
9. 6-month Treasury bill — Chart update 06/09/23
10. Treasury Securities average yield — Chart update 05/12/23
11. 12-month Treasury average — Chart update 06/09/23
12. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) — Chart update 05/19/23
13. Applicable federal rates — Chart update 04/21/23


Chart update 06/09/23

Current
06/09/23
6.71%

Month ago
05/12/23
6.35%
Year ago
06/10/22
5.23%

Video updated: December 2022
The average 30-year FRM rate in California is provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.
More information:

Chart update 06/02/23
May 2023
Average
6.50%
Apr 2023
Average
6.34%
May 2022
Average
5.23%
 

Chart update 06/09/23
Current
06/09/23
6.07%
Month ago
05/12/23
5.75%
Year ago
06/10/22
4.38%
The average 15-year FRM rate in California is provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank.
More information:
 

Chart update 06/02/23
May 2023
6.86%
Apr 2023
6.65%
May 2022
5.08%
The 5/1 average adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate shows the average rate for the first five years after origination. After the initial five-year period, the ARM rate is adjusted annually based on an index figure, such as a certain Treasury Bill rate (which reflects Federal Reserve rate movements) or the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate (LIBOR). Beginning January 2016, the average ARM rate in California is provided by Bankrate.com. Prior to January 2016, the average ARM rate is provided by Freddie Mac’s survey of the Western Region of the U.S.
Chart update 06/09/23
Current
06/09/23
3.75%
Month ago
05/12/23
3.47%
Year ago
06/10/22
3.16%
This rate is a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. The 10-year rate historically runs closer to 4% during a stable money market. The rate is influenced by worldwide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation.
 
 

Chart update 06/02/23
Avg 15-Year
May 2023
5.88%
Avg 30-Year
May 2023
6.50%
Avg 10-Year T-Note
May 2023
3.57%

 

Video update: September 2022
The average 15- and 30-year conventional commitment rates are the rates at which a lender commits to lend mortgage money in the United States-West/California for the duration of the life of each respective mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac. The green line reflects the 10-Year Treasury Note Average, a leading indicator of the direction of future Freddie Mac rates. It is comprised of the level of worldwide demand for the dollar and anticipated future domestic inflation.
More information:
Chart update 05/12/23
Current
05/12/23
5.29%
Month Ago
04/14/23
5.13%
Year Ago
05/13/22
0.92%
This rate determines the minimum interest rate the seller must use in a delayed §1031 transaction and report when not receiving interest on §1031 monies held by a facilitator/accommodator. This rate also sets the amount of the ordinary income the facilitator/accommodator must report.
Chart update 06/09/23
May 2023
5.14%
Apr 2023
4.92%
May 2022
0.98%
The 3-Month Treasury Bill is the rate managed by the Federal Reserve through the Fed Funds Rate as the base price of borrowing money in the short-term. It is used in determining the yield spread, which predicts the likelihood of a recession one year forward. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay.
Chart update 06/09/23
 May 2023
5.03%
Apr 2023
4.79%
May 2022
1.45%

The six-month T-Bill rate is one of several indices used by lenders to periodically adjust the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rate. The adjusted rate equals the indexed rate (at the time of adjustment or an average of several prior rates) plus the lender’s profit margin. The posted rate is the monthly average for the listed month. Rates are released with a 1-2 month reporting delay.

Chart update 05/12/23
Apr 2023
4.68%
Mar 2023
4.68%
Apr 2022
1.89%
This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. The ARM interest rate equals T-Bill yield, plus the lender’s profit margin. The index is an average of T-Bill yields with maturities adjusted to one year.
Chart update 06/09/23
May 2023
4.21%
Apr 2023
3.98%
May 2022
0.64%
This index is one of several indexes used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. This figure is an average of the one-year T-Bill rates for the past 12 months. The ARM interest rate equals the 12-Month Treasury Average yield plus the lender’s profit margin. There is a one-two month lag in data reporting for the 12-Month Treasury Average.
Chart update 05/19/23
05/18/23
5.05%
04/20/22
4.80%
05/19/22
0.79%
This index is one of several indices used by lenders as stated in their ARM note to periodically adjust the note’s interest rate. It replaced the LIBOR in 2021, which was found to be manipulated in the years leading up to the 2008 recession and financial crisis. The ARM interest rate equals the SOFR rate plus the lender’s profit margin. The rate is based on overnight borrowing in the U.S. Treasury repo market. The SOFR is produced in a transparent manner and is based on observable transactions, rather than models, and, unlike the LIBOR, is not dependent on bank estimates.
This chart shows the average interest rate on AFRs.
Chart update 04’21/23
Short (3 years or less)
May 2023
3.21%
Medium (3 to 9 years)
May 2023
2.68%
Long (9+ years)
May 2023
2.78%
These rates determine minimum interest yield reportable on carryback financing. The AFR category is determined by the carryback due date. Rates are for monthly payments, reported for the coming month.