The economic recovery from the 2020 recession presently remains out of reach. But unlike the recovery from the 2008 recession when jobs were scarce, today’s recovery is upside down, driven by the Great Resignation of workers who are fed up with poor working conditions and ready to demand a change.
The number of workers quitting their jobs continues to escalate in 2021. September 2021 saw the highest number ever, with 4.4 million workers quitting nationwide in this single month. For perspective, this was up from 4.3 million a month earlier and 3.3 million a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Typically, workers are less likely to quit during times of economic distress, such as during a recession or during the immediate recovery period following a recession. That’s because they are less certain about the ability to find a new job, and thus are more likely to stay even when poor working conditions leave them dissatisfied in their work.
In 2021, even with the 2020 recession still fresh in our minds and the effects still wreaking havoc on the supply chain and inflationary metrics, many employers are struggling to find workers to fill openings. They are offering signing bonuses, above-minimum wages and other perks. With 10.4 million job openings in September 2021, it’s no wonder the 4.4 million workers who quit this month were confident in their ability to find another job. For reference, before the pandemic, the highest number of job openings seen in the U.S. was 7.6 million openings, according to the New York Times.
Why are workers quitting in droves, and why do job openings persist? A number of factors are pushing workers to demand more from their workplaces, including:
- the continued difficulty in finding childcare as unpredictable school closings persist during the pandemic;
- the decision by older, sometimes immune-compromised, at-risk individuals to retire early and permanently leave the workforce;
- the ability to grow savings during the pandemic following the multiple rounds of individual stimulus payments, allowing workers the luxury to be more particular and wait for the right job; and
- the growing desperation of employers, causing them to offer more generous wages and benefits to new workers, prompting many to quit their old, lower-paying jobs.
The building disaster of low labor force participation
Here in California, just over one million jobs are still missing from the labor market as of September 2021. However, there are roughly 650,000 active job openings, according to the state’s Employment Development Department.
For real estate, the labor shortage has hit construction particularly hard. Even before the pandemic upended everyone’s lives, the construction worker shortage caused delays and higher costs for builders. Now, on top of the building material shortage, the lack of workers has held back new construction even more.
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Without more workers, construction will continue to fall below what is needed to meet demand, worsening the inventory shortage which has caused home prices to skyrocket out of reach for most first-time homebuyers. Further, insufficient construction has also pushed rents to increase faster than wages, worsening quality of living standards and contributing to California’s worsening homelessness crisis.
Outside of our ongoing housing shortage, the low labor force participation (LFP) rate has broader economic implications. A low LFP rate is a sign of a weak economic foundation. Without a steady stream of income, households are at the mercy of their savings, which are not infinite. Eventually, workers will need to return to work, or else move in with relatives and contribute less to the economy.
Many of the workers who left the labor force during the pandemic were women. Instead of earning income, they became responsible for the care of children and elderly relatives. This is problematic for individual household incomes, and it’s also detrimental for the economy as a whole.
Since the 1970s when women began working outside the home in greater numbers, household income has continuously climbed. In real terms, household income has increased 21% from 1979 to 2018, accord to Brookings. As women make up a disproportionate share of now-jobless workers in 2021, expect to see household income measures — and economic participation — decline.
Real estate professionals: how do you see the Great Resignation playing out in your careers? Are more of your clients quitting their jobs? Or are colleagues pursuing other careers outside of real estate? Share your experience with other readers in the comments below.
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I have been working with and helping job seekers for years. What they tell me is different. Not everyone is leaving due to the new protocols. What I have heard from my clients over and over again has had more to do with their work culture than anything else. Many were fed up with the way they were being “treated”. Others are lured by the possibility of operating their own business from home, online… I have heard many different reasons along these lines. But the new regulations weren’t often on the list. A higher quaity of life was more like it.
Older individuals aren’t all quitting because of the virus………they can get a vaccine. They’re leaving because many are tired of being strangled by more government regulations. They’ve also seen their stocks/IRA/401K go up, along with the value of their real estate holdings and perhaps crypto/NFT.
Poor legislation that makes it possible for workers to make more on unemployment and a requirement of employment to take a shot (erroneously labeled a “Vaccine”-until they changed the definition) that increasingly looks less beneficial has also had an effect. Government refuses to take the win with 99% of seniors and 81% of adults over 12 vaccinated already and continues to push for the last few that may (or may not) need it to get it, despite reservations over long-term effects, allergic reactions, lack of real need, and religious objections, not to mention natural immunity.
Even if they’re making a little less with unemployment, why bother.
Some are definitely quitting because of the vaccine mandate, for whatever reason.
This is now about govt. power/control. Maybe it always was. Initially those lying control freaks said when 70% or more of the population either had the virus or was vaccinated, we’d have heard immunity and could go back to normal. In CA we’re close to 100% vaccinated, no issue with ICU capacity, anyone that wants a vaccine can get one and we’re still doing this nonsense with mandates and masks!!!!!