In a recent firsttuesday poll, readers were asked their thoughts on how single family residence (SFR) construction would trend in the New Year. Respondents were definitively split in their answers.

According to our poll:

  • 38% of respondents said SFR starts will increase;
  • 36% said SFR starts will decrease; and
  • 27% said SFR starts will remain unchanged.

Readers were asked the same poll a year prior. The results of the poll going into 2021 were much more distinct and unified, including:

  • 81% of respondents saying SFR starts will increase; and
  • 19% saying starts will decrease.

This is quite a change in opinion during the course of a year. What accounts for the change in sentiment?

2020 experienced an increase in SFR starts. In fact, SFR starts have increased the past couple of years. According to our firsttuesday construction starts data:

  • 2021 saw 66,000 SFR starts;
  • 2020 saw 59,000 SFR starts; and
  • 2019 saw 58,600 SFR starts.

Taking a deeper look, the annual change from September 2020 to September 2021 was up 20%.

Related article:

New construction drops heading into Q4 2021

firsttuesday SFR starts forecast

The technical majority of respondents believe SFR starts will continue to increase – which is a safe bet. However, 2021-2022 will likely see an impact from the recessionary job market and ongoing supply shortage.

SFR starts will not reach their full potential for some time, but as we see more recovery, it is likely SFR starts will pick up steam and see a peak in the boomlet period of 2024-2026.