Roughly 223,000 Dreamers live in California in 2017. The vast majority of these residents are in school or employed, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Dreamers make up a large portion of the residents granted legal residency in the U.S. under Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), an executive order signed by President Obama in 2012. These are individuals born to undocumented parents who arrived in the U.S. when they were children and have been granted the legal right to stay.
However, the legality of these Dreamers’ presence is up in the air following the current administration’s rescission of DACA in September 2017. Lawmakers now have the option to formalize DACA or certain portions of the order. However, if they take no action, the program will end and Dreamers will be required to leave the country by the time their individual work authorizations expire, within the next two years.
Dreamers own homes, too
14% of the individuals who make up California’s Dreamer population are homeowners, according to Zillow. This amounts to 31,000 California homeowners under significant threat of deportation.
This threat to the housing market if felt across the state. If DACA is not formalized in some capacity and these individuals are deported, this represents a loss of:
- $111 million in property taxes to California; and
- $11.6 billion to California’s gross domestic product (GDP).
This also does not consider the impact ending DACA will have on future immigration into California. Currently, domestic migration is negative, meaning fewer residents move to California from other states than leave. The only reason California’s adult population is growing is due to immigrants from other nations.
The other big negative that will immediately and directly impact the housing market is the inevitable foreclosures that will follow in the wake of this forced exodus.
One-third of undocumented immigrants live in owner-occupied housing. Thus, when one income-earning householder is deported and that income stream is suddenly lost, the entire household is less likely to be able to timely make mortgage payments. This is eerily reminiscent of the recent foreclosure crisis, in which foreclosures were most severe in the communities that saw the most deportations.
The remaining undocumented immigrants live in rentals, and the loss of their presence will impact landlords in immigrant communities, too.
Finally, the deportation of DACA recipients and other undocumented immigrants will see a reduction in construction workers — an industry already experiencing a shortage. Fewer construction workers mean longer construction times and higher costs for builders and ultimately homebuyers and renters — the absolute worst thing for the future of the California housing market.
But there’s good news too: California’s immigrant-friendly policies will soften the impact here as compared to other states.
More information will follow as we watch how Congress plans to proceed in the coming months.
Related article:
Landlords prohibited from taking action against tenants based on immigration status
An illegal immigrant should not have been able to purchase a house in the first place, or hold a real estate license and sell homes and property. California has brought this problem on itself for not following the law.
Bye
Lets see. We could have affordable housing again, Reduced crime, because gangbangers will likely go also. Less traffic and hit and runs caused by undocumented individuals running from the police. Then, the construction workers who were forced to leave the state could come back again after there are no workers being paid under the table taking union jobs. Sounds like a win-win to me. From the comments read, it looks like the majority agree that Cal. would be a better place without this imbalance. The writer is worried about taxes? This article is nothing more than a political statement.
Ditto! Politics and Political Correctness reign supreme…what’s next? Free housing being paid for by the rest of us just to keep the Illegal Aliens here?
The Los Angeles metropolitan area is already overpopulated and suffers from horrible traffic and a shortage of housing – any decrease in the population from any cause would help.
Once again we get the “leftest” version from this author. What other illegal acts by people will hurt the real estate market? The fact is that you can not excuse illegal activities for its supposed impact on a market. And in reality, as others have commented, inventory is so low right now this will be a plus for the market. In a twist of fate it might benefit them because the illegals can seemingly use their equity when they return to their home country and maybe even buy a place for cash…
This is not a balanced article. There may be good reasons for Congress to adopt a legal DACA plan. However, the reasons you cite for retaining it are flawed. The facts: 1. Most affected homes would be sold and not foreclosed because in today’s market most homes are not under water. The lapse of DACA would not cause a general collapse in the economy, which was the cause of the last downturn. 2. The next owner will pay the property taxes. Thus, there will not be any loss of property taxes. 3. Less demand in rental markets will help counteract ever rising rents. Part of the push of rents is from increased demand due to undocumented immigrants including Dreamers. 4. Most Dreamers are not construction workers. 5. All states are immigrant friendly, if the immigrants come in legally. Your reference to California policies being more “immigrant-friendly” really means more “illegal” immigrant friendly, which is true.
Michael Wooten Yes, I So Agree! “Immigrant Friendly” is code for ILLEGALS. And there are No Illegal “IMMIGRANTS”, they are simply ILLEGALS.
I am Mad and Alarmed that CAR, this Article and many others in the Real Estate industry are imposing their Bias Views onto Realtors! Are there any other Agents disgusted to see the Political pop-ups when logging into CAR or zipForms?
How many of us Realtors were ask if we supported “Non-US Citizens” aka ILLEGALS, holding a CA Real Estate License?
It is Alarming, and not with this particular article on DACA/Dreamers affects on the housing market, but the whole industry that has evolved into a Political Lobby advocate for ILLEGALS.
First Tuesday, Stop writing such Bias Articles.
where is the real estate market strong in cali? Starved for inventory? where?
Does anyone really think 31,000 homes would affect a strong real estate market that is starved for inventory?