Orange County housing indicators

As we make our way through the impacts of the 2020-2021 recession, it’s important to note that Orange County’s housing market never fully recovered from the 2008 recession. Home sales volume remained low throughout the elongated recovery of the 2010’s, as did job creation. Residential construction of all types continues to struggle in this region, leaving would-be homebuyers wanting for more.

As the 2020-2021 recession maintains its grip on the economy, proactive agents will prepare for the inevitable slowdown in sales here in Orange County and across the state. Historic job losses stemming from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, along with reduced MLS inventory, have held down sales volume. However, prices have continued to rise due to the current supply-and-demand imbalance, propped up by record-low interest rates and low inventory. But today’s brief pricing boost will not last when the expiration of the foreclosure moratorium injects distressed sales into the MLS inventory, expected to occur in the second half of 2021. Expect prices to decline heading into 2022, bottoming in 2022-2023 before the next recovery will begin around 2024-2025.

View the Orange County regional charts below for details on current activity and forecasts for its local housing market.

Updated June 18, 2021. Original copy posted March 2013.

Home sales volume dips

Chart update 06/18/21

Home sales volume in Orange County remains weak and somewhat stuck at just over half the heights seen during the Millennium Boom. Echoing state trends, Orange County saw a decrease in total home sales volume in 2018, ending the year 9% lower than in 2017. In 2019, home sales volume was a further 3% below 2018. In 2020, home sales volume reversed course, rising a slight 3% above the prior year. Further, at the end of Q1 2021, year-to-date sales volume was 20% above a year earlier.

A sharp bounce in home pricing following the speculator interference of 2012-2014 has held sales volume back from any significant increases. Buyers’ incomes, already insufficient to keep up with quickly rising home prices, were further decimated in 2018 as mortgage interest rates increased.

In review, 2009-2010 Orange County sales volume rose slightly with the introduction of the housing tax credit, falling back in 2011 for lack of end user demand. From the latter half of 2012 through most of 2013, speculator hyper-activity bumped sales volume artificially yet again, as it did in all of California. The speculator buying wave receded and sales volume slumped in 2016-2019.

Looking forward, expect a similar dynamic in response to the ongoing 2020 recession. Today, federal stimulus and the eviction and foreclosure moratorium are providing a temporary boost to the housing market. Along with low interest rates, which have caused home prices to increase, the housing market has thus far inched forward despite the economic recession. A complete recovery with annual sales volume of around 46,000 in Orange County will be reached only after end user demand is buttressed by labor force participation and normalized job levels, expected in the 2024-2025 recovery period from the present recession.

Low turnover rate to continue

Chart update 09/07/20

Without turnover, homes do not sell. The homeowner turnover rate in Orange County has remained mostly level since the end of the recession in 2009, at 7.3% as of 2018. The renter turnover rate has declined since 2010 and was at 19.5% in 2018, the most recently reported Census year.

Expect homeowner turnover reports to slip dramatically in 2020. With 2020 recession job losses alongside COVID-19 eviction moratoriums, significantly fewer renters and homeowners are currently changing residences.

The homeowner turnover rate will rise once home prices and interest rates align to produce desirable homebuying conditions. This is not expected before 2022-2023, when the additional and necessary factor of greatly increased residential construction will be experienced and a recovery from the 2020 recession will begin. Then, members of Generation Y (Gen Y) will collectively rush to buy and Baby Boomers (Boomers) will retire en masse, selling and mostly buying replacement homes. International and domestic emigration into California will also play a significant role in suburban housing demand.

Homeownership remains low

Chart update 06/18/21

Orange County’s homeownership rate has fallen since its 2007 peak of 62.7%. The most recent homeownership data shows a 57.1% homeownership rate in Orange County. Statewide homeownership has historically been about two percentage points below Orange County’s. The state average is currently 55%, thus homeownership reports in Orange County in 2020 likely remain around 57%.

Expect Orange County’s homeownership rate to remain near its present low level until 2024-2025, when the housing market will bounce back from the 2020 recession. Only with the return of jobs, higher wages and increased confidence will the first-time homebuyer population gain traction.

However, don’t expect the rate of homeownership to fully return to the inflated heights seen in 2007 anytime soon. This rate was elevated by unfettered access to easy money, which mortgage regulators tamped down in 2014 with enforcement of ability-to-pay (ATR) rules to protect society from certain destabilizing types of mortgage lending. These rules limit mortgage funding to those homebuyers with the financial ability to actually repay their debts.

Thus, the housing market won’t see a repeat of those Millennium Boom homebuyers who lacked the proper finances. Though this translates to a slightly lower homeownership rate in the near term, it fosters a more stable future housing market in Orange County and the state. The shift of Gen Y to rentals for a longer period before buying a home than in past generations also puts a cap on home sales volume.

Construction starts on the rebound

Chart update 06/18/21

The recovery picture is mixed for Orange County residential construction. After years of increased single family residential (SFR) construction starts, 2018 and 2019 both saw a decrease in the number of new SFRs started. In 2020, the trend reversed, with SFR construction rising and multi-family declining.

Multi-family starts in Orange County totaled 3,600 in 2020, down 31% from the previous year. This decline resumes a long downward trend that was briefly broken in 2019. However, statewide legislative moves focused on adding more housing for the ever-growing resident population will see multi-family gradually climb in the coming years.

2020’s slowing construction starts were partly the result of shelter-in-place orders in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and decreased confidence in the economy from lenders and builders.

The next peak in multi-family construction starts will likely occur in 2023-2024 period due to a boost from state legislation. However, don’t expect SFR construction to recover fully anytime soon. The next peak in SFR construction starts will likely occur in the post-2024 era as renters shift to becoming homeowners following a statewide-push for more construction. Even then, SFR starts are unlikely to return to the mortgage-driven numbers seen during the hyperactive Millennium Boom.

Jobs are recovering, too slowly

Chart update 06/18/21

Orange County continues to recover from the historic job losses of 2020. While the number of jobs is 10% above a year earlier as of April 2021, this is a reflection of the bottom of the 2020 recession, reached one year earlier in April 2020. Compared to the pre-recession peak, Orange County is still 146,800 jobs below the 2020 recession.

As seen in Figure 9, job additions were one-third slower to come about during the past recovery compared to the 2000s recovery, and at half the pace of the 1990s recovery, echoing the secular stagnation of the 1930s. When will all of these jobs catch up with Orange County’s continuously growing population?

Orange County was on course to return to pre-recession levels in 2020, but not before the recession arrived, causing significant job losses in the region. The share of jobs lost here in Orange County is worse than the job loss experienced statewide, which is 7.8% below a year earlier as of April 2021. Expect a W-shaped recession in the coming months, with jobs rising and falling, not to enter a true recovery until 2024-2025.

Jobs in the real estate industry

Chart update 06/18/21

2020 job losses continue to impact California’s various employment industries. The number of individuals employed in the real estate industry is declining in 2021. Jobs numbers have slightly recovered in the construction industry, but the number of real estate professionals continues to decline, despite rapid sales volume and price increases in 2021.

Construction jobs will likely continue to rise in the coming years, as state legislation focusing on adding more housing inventory is not impacted by the recession. The real estate industry will see jobs increase beginning in 2024-2025 with the housing market’s recovery from the coming expiration of the foreclosure moratorium.

Per capita income plays catch up

Chart update 03/06/19

The average income earner in Orange County made $69,300 in 2018 (the most recently reported data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis).

Sustainable home price increases (not driven by cash-heavy investors or market momentum) are limited to a ceiling set by personal income, the annual rate of increase from 2018 to 2019 in this region being 5.4%. These annual income and price increases will remain low until an optimal employment level is attained with a full jobs recovery for the 10%+ population growth since 2007. Orange County will likely achieve these job numbers in 2020. Meanwhile, price increases will remain low since homebuyer occupants ultimately determine selling prices — they can only pay as much for a home (or rent) as their savings and income qualify them to pay — nothing more for a sustained period of time.

However, per capita income increases will likely slow somewhat in 2020-2021 following the 2020 recession. This, along with higher interest rates, will hold back home sales in the next few years. Look to 2021-2023 for the next significant increase in home sales volume and prices. This period will be driven by the shifting demographic trends of retiring Baby Boomers and their Gen Y children who will become homebuyers en masse following the next recession.