FOR THE MONTH OF MAY 2009
Date of release: July 2, 2009
SFR CONSTRUCTION
- The pace of single family residence (SFR) construction during May 2009 was at an annual rate of 24,000 starts; 38% below one year ago.
- The present trend in the number of SFR starts is flat, with January 09 the trough month ending the downward trend which began in 2005.
- The most recent peak year in SFR starts was 2005, with 155,322 starts, and the most recent trough year was 2008 with 33,050 SFR starts.
FORECAST:
- The forecast for total SFR starts in 2009 by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) is for 24,900. This is down 24.7% from 2008.
- first tuesday’s own forecast for total SFR starts in 2009 is 25,000, down 21% from 2008.
- Average dollar value of an SFR start in May 2009 was $260,171.13. This is 3% less than one year ago, and 19.7% more than the peak year of 2005.
- The trough year for SFR starts this recession will likely occur during 2009, possibly 2010, with the next peak year for SFR starts likely to occur during the three year period of 2016-2018, as forecast by first tuesday.
APARTMENT/CONDO CONSTRUCTION
TRENDS:
- The pace of apartment/condo construction during May 2009 was at an annual rate of 8,300 starts; 78.7% below one year ago.
- The present trend in the number of apartment/condo starts is flat, following a downward trend that lasted from 2004 through the last quarter.
- The most recent peak year in apartment/condo starts was 2004 with 61,543 starts, and the most recent trough year was 2008 with 31,912 apt/condo starts.
FORECAST:
- The forecast for total apartment/condo starts in 2009 by the Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) is for 15,300. This is down 52.1% from 2008.
- first tuesday’s own forecast for total apartment/condo starts in 2009 is 32,000, up .3% from 2008.
- Average dollar value of an apartment/condo start in May 2009 was $149,028.32. This is 36% more than one year ago, and 37% more than the peak year of 2004.
- The trough year for apartment/condo starts this recession will likely occur during 2009 or 2010, with the next peak year for apartment/condo starts likely to occur during the two year period of 2016-2017, as forecast by first tuesday.
STATISTICS RELATED TO CALIFORNIA HOUSING:
8,500,000 SFRs exist in California (from MDA DataQuick).
Population growth in California is currently at an annual pace of 427,000.
• The number of people employed in California during January 2009 is 14,411,400 (from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics), down from the December 2007 peak of 15,794,700.
• The downward trend in the number of California jobs is decelerating, and forecast to bottom out by 2011.
• The number of vacant homes and apartment/condos earlier in 2009 was 500,000, as reported by the USPS.
