The Federal Reserve (Fed) is ready to dole out additional stimulus if need be ― that includes another round of Treasury bond buying (quantitative easing) or lowering interest rates. In the Fed’s biannual economic report to Congress, they indicated such measures will only be taken if the economy does not significantly improve or if deflation becomes a danger.
Fed representatives believe the second half of 2011 will show signs of an improving economy – more jobs and more sales. In the event they are wrong, stimulus measures are ready to be employed.
first tuesday take: The Fed’s responsibilities are threefold: dispense enough money into circulation, keep the labor market stable and maintain inflation at 2-3%. The efforts thus far to produce a growing jobs market (and thus improve real estate sales of all types) by injecting funds into the banking system through Treasury bond (T-bond) buying have proven less effective than they anticipated.
To complicate matters, 2008 legislation authorized the Fed to pay interest on bank reserves and that return has given lenders incentive to hoard their funds by placing them with the Fed rather than make loans. [For more information regarding the Fed’s purchase of Treasury bonds, see the October 2010 first tuesday article, The Fed purchases Treasuries, fends off deflation and the July 2011 first tuesday article, The Fed’s monetary policy, straight from the horse’s mouth.]
Will another round of Fed T-bond buying get lenders moving? It depends on how confident lenders feel about their pool of potential borrowers compared to the Fed. In the meantime, the Fed must continue monitoring the economy and be prepared to adjust their battle plan accordingly. Dropping interest payments on those 1.8 trillion in bank reserves on deposit with the Fed would quickly get lenders lending. [For more information regarding the Fed’s policies, see the June 2011 first tuesday article, Suspect behavior, why and how the Fed creates a recession.]
Re: “Federal Reserve chief hints at stimulus plan” from Mercury News