UCLA’s Anderson Forecast predicted San Diego County’s housing prices will bottom-out by the fall and rebound. The fact that home sales have picked up recently, although most have involved foreclosed properties, seemed to hold the most weight with the people at UCLA when making this sunny prediction.

However, others are quick to point out that an improvement in the real estate market has never occurred when the unemployment rate is also rising.

first tuesday take: San Diego is doing better than the rest of the state, but then, they started off better than the rest in the first place. However, this doesn’t mean that they’re immune to the trends affecting the rest of us. The downturn is yet to really hit San Diego, but it is coming.

The ripple effect of the slow down from across the state will eventually rain on San Diego’s parade. It’s already adversely affected the North County, and it’s on its way toward the border to meet up with the slow down in Mexico. However, San Diego does not house lenders as it did back in the early 1990s when the nation’s three largest S&Ls were based in San Diego and all three went bust big time, taking San Diego down with them. That risk is not present during this vicious cycle but San Diego will find they are better off without it.

Re: “Home price fall nears bottom, report says” from The San Diego Union-Tribune