TransUnion, one of the big three credit rating agencies, projects California mortgage delinquencies will be on the rise for close to a year longer before bucking the current trend. By the end of 2009, TransUnion predicts, 60-day lates and foreclosures in California will be up to 14.7%, compared to the 9.7% as of June 2009.

California continues to lead the nation in unemployment and loan delinquency, especially in the Inland Empire region of the state, which TransUnion reports had a 16.5% rate of 60-day lates as of June 2009.

first tuesday take: This article looks forward to next year, but what of beyond that? While we agree that foreclosures and delinquencies will continue to rise, to see them level off by next year is still a very forgiving prediction. Keep in mind that the end of job losses and bankruptcy filings lag well behind government-reported economic recovery. When we make it through this 2009 wave of delinquencies and delayed foreclosures, even more foreclosures are to come as the most-likely “jobless recovery” takes hold and forces the next wave of homeowners to slip behind on their payments — thanks to past deregulation of adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) loans.

On a happier long-term note, it will be a pleasure to see pre-1980s mortgage regulation, lender restrictions, and owner rights reestablished to “lend” mobility of ownership and stability to real estate sales during the next couple of decades.

Re: “California mortgage delinquencies expected to rise through 2009” by Los Angeles Times