We told you 2014 was going to be a bumpy ride — and we’re already making good on that promise.

As January comes to a close, the mortgage market is looking pretty spastic. Mark Gongloff from the Huffington Post reported the “mortgage market just cratered and the Fed should be worried.” Yet, mortgage applications were up last week, according to the Mortgage Banker’s Association (MBA).

Mr. Gongloff substantiated his report of a “murdered mortgage market” with the latest mortgage origination numbers from Wells Fargo and Chase bank. Q4 2013 mortgage originations fell 60% at Wells Fargo and Chase’s originations fell 54%, year-over-year.

Given Wells Fargo and Chase are the two largest mortgage lenders in the U.S., such a drastic decline is certainly worthy of everyone’s attention. Refinancings have been hit the hardest, thanks to an average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) interest rate more than a full percentage point higher than last year.

But the MBA reported applications for refinancing increased 11 percent last week. This occurred as the average interest rate fell about 10 basis points to approximately 4.6%. The market is so touchy (when does 10 basis points ever move a market?) since rates have been low for so long.

The recent sharp increase in rates over the past year has shocked an entire marketplace that has become accustomed to a falling interest rate paradigm. Mortgage refinancing has been big business for the past 30 years. Expect this to change as rates continue upward for the next 30.

There used to be a solution to the market stagnation bred by rising rates — low-rate loan assumptions. During the sky bound rates of the 1970s, loan assumptions acted as a catalyst to keep the real estate market moving. Rather than refinancing, homeowners would upgrade, which meant robust rates of turnover.

Today the due-on sale clause is tantamount to an outright prohibition on loan assumptions. Lenders jealously guard existing loan terms, smothering homeowners and stifling turnover.

So what’s going to be the catalyst of market turnover for the next 30 years? Well, if rates continue to increase and loan assumptions remain taboo, the only answer is falling prices.